Meta’s Year of Efficiency Is Paying Off

January 29, 2024—Meta and Zuck have a busy week: Congressional testimony about child safety (Wednesday), Q4 earnings (Thursday), Facebook's 20th anniversary (Sunday).

That means it's a busy week for me as well. I delivered my pre-earnings Meta commentary to a few select top-tier news outlets and broadcasters, but here's my sneak-peek summary:

1️⃣ I expect Meta to report Q4 revenue growth above the midpoint of its guidance of $36.5 billion to $40 billion.

There is a strong chance it could surpass the upper end of that guidance.

2️⃣ On a full-year basis, I expect Meta to report total revenue of $133 billion to $135 billion, up from $116.6 billion in 2022. That would amount to a 14% to 16% year over year increase.

Compared to 2022, when revenue fell for the first time in the company’s history, that’s an extremely strong turnaround. But it is a far cry from 2021, when revenue soared 37% YoY.

Here are the questions I think Wall Street analysts should ask (and investors should pay attention to) when Meta reports Q4 2024 results:

➡️ How much of Meta's revenue growth is coming from AI-driven ad tools?

➡️ What is Meta doing to combat the deepfake generative AI problem?

➡️ How reliant is Meta on Chinese advertisers?

➡️ Has Reels moved from net-neutral to ad revenue to net-positive?

➡️ Will we see ads in Threads this year?

➡️ How many more billions is Meta prepared to lose on Reality Labs?